If Chase Rice wins "Survivor: Nicaragua" it will be for wearing these tight shorts. I doubt even Shannon could resist them.

I’ve been scouring the Earth (aka doing simple Google searches) looking for one definitive boot list for “Survivor: Nicaragua.” It was so easy for “Heroes vs. Villains.” This one is trickier.

***October 21, 2010 update***

This looks like the definitive list. Thanks for the tip, Mr!

*** End update! ***

I thought I found a good one here at Dr Don’s but they had Tyrone as the boot tonight and the old folks won the challenge, leaving my (least) favorite Nicaragua villain Shannon Elkins/Shambo as the one to go. (Just don’t go to New York, man. I have a feeling you’re not welcome there.)

I found a bunch of spoilers at Survivor Sucks and they, like many sites, have a final 3 list. I’m pretty confident about the final 3 since so many lists agree on it. Everyone just seems to get lost in the middle of the season.

So instead of trying to give one definitive list, I’m going to copy some of what I’ve read.

*** FIRST GROUP OF SPOILERS***

From Reality TV Spoilers:

Look, it's the (probable) final 3: Matthew “Sash” Lenahan, Chase Rice and Judson "Jud/Fabio" Birza

-The La Flor tribe (the young tribe) dominate the competitions early on.
-Jimmy Johnson doesn’t last long, possibly voted out third.
-The tribes are mixed up in week four or five.
-Two women are booted in one episode pre-merge.
-Marty gives an idol to Matt (Sash).
-Two women (possibly NaOnka and Kelly S) quit post merge, but still make the jury.
-The Final 3 is all La Flor and all male: Jud (Fabio), Chase & Matt (Sash).

Remember, as of right now this is all still speculation. More concrete spoilers should be revealed in the coming weeks.

***SECOND GROUP OF SPOILERS***

Dr Don is wrong about Tyrone, but here’s other stuff, in case it’s right:

Other predictions:
+ Brenda dodges a very early bullet
+ NaOnka and KellyB quit after the merge but are still on the jury.
+ NaOnka has an idol when she quits and might give it to Chase
+ Two females are sent home in one episode. Happens before the merge
+ Jimmy Johnson goes home on the third week.
+ Marty gives an idol to Matt.
+ Brenda is betrayed by NaOnka.
+ A couple of Survivors  win a lot of immunity challenges
+ Brenda dodges a very early bullet+ NaOnka and KellyB quit after the merge but are still on the jury.+ NaOnka has an idol when she quits and might give it to Chase+ Two females are sent home in one episode. Happens before the merge+ Jimmy Johnson goes home on the third week.+ Marty gives an idol to Matt.+ Brenda is betrayed by NaOnka.+ A couple of Survivors  win a lot of immunity challenges
+ Chase and Brenda were an item even before shooting began. [Looks like we got that right too]
+ Of the 8 people sent home pre-jury, 2 are 30 or under, and 6 are over 40.
+ Final three speculation: Chase, Jud and Sash.  All male final three for the first time. Brenda might go as far as final 4.
Here’s everyone’s guess as to the order players are voted off. Hang on to this and you’ll look like a genius at work:
1.  Wendy Jo [CORRECT]
2.  Tyronne [NOT CORRECT]
3.  Jimmy Johnson
4.  Jimmy T
swap
5.  Yve
double boot:
6.  Alina   7.  Jill  (double boot might be Yve/Alina)
8.  Shannon
12. Marty
11. Ben
10. Kelly B
9.  Brenda
8.  NaOnka
7.  Kelly S
6.  Holly
5.  Dan
4.  Jane
Final 3:  Chase, Jud (Fabio), Matt (Sash)
*
*
*
***THIRD GROUP OF SPOILERS***

Survivor Sucks has several pages of various intel. They also have an all-male final 3.

According to DashyWorth: “Is indeed all-male. One of the many Survivor firsts this season. Jeff digs the winner and I think viewers will as well.”

Polonium says “ooberfan spoiled this over a week ago when he temporarily changed his avatar to show who the final 3 are: Chase, Jud, and Sash. The winner is either Chase or Jud (with Sash as the goat). This is not new information.”

*

Here’s ElisabethNelehHeidiRok’s boot list and reasoning. It looks pretty good to me:

So why is it that everyone thinks Dan and Jane make it far. The older people seem to get Pagonged. You know that Brenda and Chase are in an alliance, and Chase is with Sash/Fabia/Ben, then Jane/Dan couldnt possibly have formed an alliance with NaOnka around final 8 or 9 to take out Brenda.
The way I see it going down is something like;
19.Shannon
18.JimmyJ
17.JimmyT
16.Yve
15.Tyrone
14/13: Double Boot: Jill/KellyB
12.Marty
11.Holly
10.Alina
9.Dan
8.Jane
7.Brenda
6.NaOnka
5.KellyS
4.Ben
Final 3: Fabio (Jud)/Sash/Chase

*

missyae gives details on the “swap” which creates new tribes:

Brenda Lowe
Kelly Shinn
Fabio (Jud)
Sash (Matthew)
Kelly Bruno
Marty
Jill
Jane

VS

Naonka Mixon
Benry (Ben)
Chase
Alina
Yve
Holly
Tyronne
Danny

She said Kelly B. is ousted in a blindside pre-merge and the eventual merged tribe is named Libertad, Spanish for Liberty.

******

There are 100 pages of posts all giving somewhat similar boot lists, but they get hung up and change order around the middle by the double boot. It’s all confusing me.

Suffice it to say, I think Chase Rice is going to win “Survivor: Nicaragua.” Unless Jud/Fabio wins, because he goes on a streak of immunity wins and the jury cheers him on. That seems to be the “new” running theory. Fabio as the winner? Weird.

Catch up on my “Survivor” stories in this archive.

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